Politics / Elections
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Will Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 10 and 12%? — Democrats, 10 to 12%
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
18.5%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range3.0pp dislocation
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P
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Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: '2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory' ↔ '2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)' (score 0.58, outcome match 0.45).
Kalshi ticker
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B11
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0xf9e868548efc7008…
Resolves 11/3/2026
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