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How many House seats will Democrats win in Florida? — Will Democrats win 10 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Florida?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
10.2%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range2.2pp dislocation
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P
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Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history
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Mapping notes
Event pair: 'How many House seats will the Democrats win in Florida?' ↔ 'How many House seats will Democrats win in Florida?' (score 0.75, outcome match 0.50, llm=uncertain).
Kalshi ticker
KXHOUSEWINSTATE-FLD-10-10
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0xe8560fef4526510f…
Resolves 11/4/2026
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