Politics / Elections
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Will Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 8 and 10%? — Democrats, 8 to 10%
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
28.5%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history
Sign up free to see how prices have moved
Mapping notes
Event pair: '2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory' ↔ '2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)' (score 0.58, outcome match 0.40, llm=uncertain).
Kalshi ticker
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03-B9
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0x5db0b6a0e75f58d8…
Resolves 11/4/2026
Pro
Order book depth, real-time dislocation alerts, correlated markets, and cross-venue portfolio margin — coming soon.