Other
How many House seats will Democrats win in Iowa? — Will Democrats win exactly 1 seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Iowa?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
14.5%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range3.0pp dislocation
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history
Sign up free to see how prices have moved
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'How many House seats will the Democrats win in Iowa?' ↔ 'How many House seats will Democrats win in Iowa?' (score 0.75, outcome match 0.67, llm=same).
Kalshi ticker
KXHOUSEWINSTATE-IAD-E1
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0xac0a3a8dbdbcc98a…
Resolves 11/4/2026
Pro
Order book depth, real-time dislocation alerts, correlated markets, and cross-venue portfolio margin — coming soon.