Other
How many House seats will Democrats win in Pennsylvania? — Will Democrats win exactly 10 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Pennsylvania?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
19.8%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history
Sign up free to see how prices have moved
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'How many House seats will the Democrats win in Pennsylvania?' ↔ 'How many House seats will Democrats win in Pennsylvania?' (score 0.75, outcome match 0.67, llm=same).
Kalshi ticker
KXHOUSEWINSTATE-PAD-E10
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0xf08cf87d7608ad29…
Resolves 11/4/2026
Pro
Order book depth, real-time dislocation alerts, correlated markets, and cross-venue portfolio margin — coming soon.