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How many House seats will Democrats win in New York? — Will Democrats win exactly 20 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in New York?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
32.8%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range4.0pp dislocation
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Mapping notes
Event pair: 'How many House seats will the Democrats win in New York?' ↔ 'How many House seats will Democrats win in New York?' (score 0.75, outcome match 0.57, llm=uncertain).
Kalshi ticker
KXHOUSEWINSTATE-NYD-E20
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0x13c80cd3222962ad…
Resolves 11/4/2026
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