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How many House seats will Democrats win in Arizona? — Will Democrats win exactly 4 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Arizona?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
15.5%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range5.6pp dislocation
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Mapping notes
Event pair: 'How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?' ↔ 'How many House seats will Democrats win in Arizona?' (score 0.75, outcome match 0.60, llm=same).
Kalshi ticker
KXHOUSEWINSTATE-AZD-E4
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0x42f85d003616f3e4…
Resolves 11/4/2026
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