Other
How many House seats will Democrats win in California? — Will Democrats win exactly 47 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in California?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
21.0%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range4.5pp dislocation
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history
Sign up free to see how prices have moved
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?' ↔ 'How many House seats will Democrats win in California?' (score 0.75, outcome match 0.67, llm=same).
Kalshi ticker
KXCAHOUSEDEM-26NOV03-E47
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0xafb9b578ba4d31e4…
Resolves 11/4/2026
Pro
Order book depth, real-time dislocation alerts, correlated markets, and cross-venue portfolio margin — coming soon.