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How many House seats will Democrats win in California? — Will Democrats win exactly 48 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in California?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
74.9%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range5.0pp dislocation
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Mapping notes
Event pair: 'How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?' ↔ 'How many House seats will Democrats win in California?' (score 0.75, outcome match 0.67, llm=same).
Kalshi ticker
KXCAHOUSEDEM-26NOV03-E48
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0x9eea97f621fb222c…
Resolves 11/4/2026
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