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How many House seats will Democrats win in Michigan? — Will Democrats win exactly 6 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Michigan?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
12.3%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range2.5pp dislocation
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Mapping notes
Event pair: 'How many House seats will the Democrats win in Michigan?' ↔ 'How many House seats will Democrats win in Michigan?' (score 0.75, outcome match 0.60, llm=same).
Kalshi ticker
KXHOUSEWINSTATE-MID-E6
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0x21eb03c35b97071a…
Resolves 11/4/2026
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