Other
How many House seats will Democrats win in Virginia? — Will Democrats win exactly 6 seats in 2026 Virginia House of Representatives elections?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
10.6%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history
Sign up free to see how prices have moved
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'How many House seats will the Democrats win in Virginia?' ↔ 'How many House seats will Democrats win in Virginia?' (score 0.75, outcome match 0.60, llm=same).
Kalshi ticker
KXVAHOUSEDEM-26NOV03-6
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0x02c3cd1157c317eb…
Resolves 11/4/2026
Pro
Order book depth, real-time dislocation alerts, correlated markets, and cross-venue portfolio margin — coming soon.