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How many House seats will Democrats win in Pennsylvania? — Will Democrats win exactly 8 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Pennsylvania?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
6.8%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range2.5pp dislocation
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Mapping notes
Event pair: 'How many House seats will the Democrats win in Pennsylvania?' ↔ 'How many House seats will Democrats win in Pennsylvania?' (score 0.75, outcome match 0.60, llm=same).
Kalshi ticker
KXHOUSEWINSTATE-PAD-E8
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0xe88925a120b1e265…
Resolves 11/4/2026
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