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How many House seats will Democrats win in Virginia? — Will Democrats win exactly 9 seats in 2026 Virginia House of Representatives elections?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
19.5%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range2.0pp dislocation
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P
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Mapping notes
Event pair: 'How many House seats will the Democrats win in Virginia?' ↔ 'How many House seats will Democrats win in Virginia?' (score 0.75, outcome match 0.40, llm=uncertain).
Kalshi ticker
KXVAHOUSEDEM-26NOV03-9
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0x3c4fcfac1fab5218…
Resolves 11/4/2026
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