Politics
Who will Trump pardon in 2026? — Will Derek Chauvin receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?
5.2%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range2.6pp dislocation
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Who will Trump pardon before 2027?' ↔ 'Who will Trump pardon in 2026?' (score 0.67, outcome match 0.40).
Kalshi ticker
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-DCHAU
Resolves 1/1/2027
Polymarket condition
0x354d0b717b2f83b6…
Resolves 12/31/2026
Pro
Order book depth, real-time dislocation alerts, correlated markets, and cross-venue portfolio margin — coming soon.