Politics / Elections
TN-05 Democratic nominee? — Will DeVante R Hill be the Democratic nominee for TN-05?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 455 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
2.3%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range3.6pp dislocation
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'TN-05 Democratic Primary Winner' ↔ 'TN-05 Democratic nominee?' (score 0.50, outcome match 1.00).
Kalshi ticker
KXTNPRIMARY-05D26-DHIL
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0x625292cb90f1c3ee…
Resolves 8/6/2026
Pro
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