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Berlin state election winner? — Will Die Linke win the 2026 Berlin state election?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

33.2%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range6.0pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

39¢

bid 35¢ · ask 43¢

24h vol $22

Trade on Kalshi →

Best price

Polymarket

33¢

bid 32¢ · ask 34¢

24h vol $675

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Berlin State Election Winner' ↔ 'Berlin state election winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 0.43).

Kalshi ticker

KXBERLINSTATE-26SEP20-DLIN

Resolves 9/20/2027

Polymarket condition

0xda4fbe6eec3d6cc6…

Resolves 9/20/2026

Pro

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