Politics / Elections
FL-16 Republican nominee? — Will Eddie Speir be the Republican nominee for FL-16?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 442 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
2.6%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'FL-16 Republican Primary Winner' ↔ 'FL-16 Republican nominee?' (score 0.50, outcome match 1.00).
Kalshi ticker
KXFLPRIMARY-16R26-ESPE
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0x7acd4fad37e86b36…
Resolves 8/18/2026
Pro
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