Other

What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year? — Will Edouard be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

21.1%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range12.5pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

16¢

bid 14¢ · ask 17¢

24h vol $51

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

28¢

bid 2¢ · ask 54¢

24h vol $41

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?' ↔ 'What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year?' (score 0.71, outcome match 0.56).

Kalshi ticker

KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01ATL-EDO

Resolves 12/1/2026

Polymarket condition

0x468951cb0c98a4e4…

Resolves 12/1/2026

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