Politics / Elections
Ceará gubernatorial election winner? — Will Eduardo Girão win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 365 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
3.4%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range4.2pp dislocation
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Ceará Governor Election Winner' ↔ 'Ceará gubernatorial election winner?' (score 0.50, outcome match 1.00).
Kalshi ticker
KXCEARAGOV-26OCT04-EGIR
Resolves 10/4/2027
Polymarket condition
0xa4508f8fb7960ab7…
Resolves 10/4/2026
Pro
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