Politics / Elections
Rio de Janeiro Governor winner? — Will Eduardo Paes win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
93.6%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
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P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner' ↔ 'Rio de Janeiro Governor winner?' (score 0.71, outcome match 0.60).
Kalshi ticker
KXRIOGOV-26OCT04-EPAE
Resolves 10/4/2027
Polymarket condition
0x826627a9999b7cd3…
Resolves 10/5/2026
Pro
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