Politics / Elections
Estonia parliamentary election winner? — Will EKRE win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 365 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
8.0%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
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Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history
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Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Estonia Parliamentary Election Winner' ↔ 'Estonia parliamentary election winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 0.67, llm=same).
Kalshi ticker
KXESTONIAPARLI-27MAR07-EKRE
Resolves 3/6/2028
Polymarket condition
0xac4d58ec62497056…
Resolves 3/7/2027
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