Politics / Elections

FL-20 Democratic nominee? — Will Elijah Manley be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 443 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

28.4%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range4.5pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

25¢

bid 24¢ · ask 26¢

24h vol $197

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

30¢

bid 26¢ · ask 33¢

24h vol $595

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner' ↔ 'FL-20 Democratic nominee?' (score 0.50, outcome match 1.00).

Kalshi ticker

KXFLPRIMARY-20D26-EMAN

Resolves 11/3/2027

Polymarket condition

0xde1bcc66938e7784…

Resolves 8/18/2026

Pro

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