Politics / Elections
Ceará gubernatorial election winner? — Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 365 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
27.5%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range2.0pp dislocation
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Ceará Governor Election Winner' ↔ 'Ceará gubernatorial election winner?' (score 0.50, outcome match 1.00).
Kalshi ticker
KXCEARAGOV-26OCT04-EFRE
Resolves 10/4/2027
Polymarket condition
0x0098859230696a9d…
Resolves 10/4/2026
Pro
Order book depth, real-time dislocation alerts, correlated markets, and cross-venue portfolio margin — coming soon.