Politics
Who will Trump pardon in 2026? — Will Eric Adams receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?
6.3%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range4.2pp dislocation
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Who will Trump pardon before 2027?' ↔ 'Who will Trump pardon in 2026?' (score 0.67, outcome match 0.40).
Kalshi ticker
KXTRUMPPARDON-27JAN01-EADA
Resolves 1/1/2027
Polymarket condition
0x30efbe1580dacf2b…
Resolves 12/31/2026
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