Politics
Which countries will Trump make formal trade deals with in 2026? — Will Trump make a new before Jan 1, 2027? — European Union
11.5%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range5.0pp dislocation
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?' ↔ 'Which countries will Trump make formal trade deals with in 2026?' (score 0.73, outcome match 0.40).
Kalshi ticker
KXFTACOUNTRIES-27-EU
Resolves 1/1/2027
Polymarket condition
0xdb3df04fc73bd716…
Resolves 12/31/2026
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