Macro

Unemployment rate in Jul 2026? — Exactly 4.2%

29.8%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
Kalshi
30¢
bid 29¢ · ask 31¢
Trade on Kalshi
Best price
Polymarket
30¢
bid 26¢ · ask 33¢
Trade on Polymarket

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'July Unemployment Rate' ↔ 'Unemployment rate in Jul 2026?' (score 0.75, outcome match 0.50).

Kalshi ticker
KXECONSTATU3-26JUL-T4.2
Resolves 8/7/2026
Polymarket condition
0x6a1866c096710b27
Resolves 8/7/2026
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