Other

What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year? — Will Fay be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

15.7%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range19.5pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

10¢

bid 8¢ · ask 11¢

24h vol $88

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

29¢

bid 2¢ · ask 56¢

24h vol $41

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?' ↔ 'What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year?' (score 0.71, outcome match 0.56).

Kalshi ticker

KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01ATL-FAY

Resolves 12/1/2026

Polymarket condition

0x49a55243809fc5e2…

Resolves 12/1/2026

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