Geopolitics

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place — Will Fernando Haddad finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

7.0%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range4.0pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

3¢

bid 0¢ · ask 6¢

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Polymarket

7¢

bid 3¢ · ask 11¢

24h vol $5

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Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place' ↔ 'Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place' (score 0.78, outcome match 0.83).

Kalshi ticker

KXBRPRESIDENT3-BRPRES26-3-FHAD

Resolves 10/4/2027

Polymarket condition

0xacc4e526a8c6f718…

Resolves 10/4/2026

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