Geopolitics
Brazil presidential election: first round winner? — Will Fernando Haddad win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
0.7%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
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P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place' ↔ 'Brazil presidential election: first round winner?' (score 0.56, outcome match 0.57).
Kalshi ticker
KXBRPRES1R-26OCT04-FHAD
Resolves 10/4/2027
Polymarket condition
0xacc4e526a8c6f718…
Resolves 10/4/2026
Pro
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