Geopolitics

Brazil Presidential election winner? — Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 387 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

24.0%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range2.6pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

26¢

bid 25¢ · ask 26¢

24h vol $10,617

Trade on Kalshi →

Best price

Polymarket

23¢

bid 23¢ · ask 23¢

24h vol $14,351

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Brazil Presidential Election' ↔ 'Brazil Presidential election winner?' (score 0.75, outcome match 1.00).

Kalshi ticker

KXBRPRES-26-FBOL

Resolves 10/25/2027

Polymarket condition

0x1a01bf78f56a507f…

Resolves 10/4/2026

Pro

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