Geopolitics

Brazil presidential election: first round winner? — Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

10.5%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range5.0pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

16¢

bid 11¢ · ask 20¢

Trade on Kalshi →

Best price

Polymarket

11¢

bid 10¢ · ask 11¢

24h vol $1,852

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?' ↔ 'Brazil presidential election: first round winner?' (score 0.50, outcome match 0.46).

Kalshi ticker

KXBRPRES1R-26OCT04-FBOL

Resolves 10/4/2027

Polymarket condition

0x087469b4129c64c6…

Resolves 10/4/2026

Pro

Order book depth, real-time dislocation alerts, correlated markets, and cross-venue portfolio margin — coming soon.