Geopolitics

Next French presidential election winner? — Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 410 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

3.3%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range5.0pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

1¢

bid 0¢ · ask 1¢

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

6¢

bid 6¢ · ask 6¢

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: '2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?' ↔ 'Next French presidential election winner?' (score 0.67, outcome match 0.67).

Kalshi ticker

KXFRENCHPRES-27-FBAY

Resolves 5/30/2028

Polymarket condition

0xe5ee6c17c3a43a01…

Resolves 4/17/2027

Pro

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