Politics / 2028

2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Who will win the next presidential election? — Gavin Newsom

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

8.7%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history

Kalshi

9¢

bid 9¢ · ask 9¢

24h vol $69,669

Trade on Kalshi →

Best price

Polymarket

8¢

bid 8¢ · ask 8¢

24h vol $7,003

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Presidential Election Winner 2028' ↔ '2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?' (score 1.00, outcome match 0.75, llm=same).

Kalshi ticker

KXPRESPERSON-28-GNEWS

Resolves 11/7/2029

Polymarket condition

0x4567b275e6b667a6…

Resolves 11/8/2028

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