Politics / 2028

2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Who will win the next presidential election? — Gavin Newsom

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

12.0%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

12¢

bid 11¢ · ask 12¢

24h vol $7,749

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

13¢

bid 13¢ · ask 13¢

24h vol $8,116

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Presidential Election Winner 2028' ↔ '2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?' (score 1.00, outcome match 0.75).

Kalshi ticker

KXPRESPERSON-28-GNEWS

Resolves 11/7/2029

Polymarket condition

0x4567b275e6b667a6…

Resolves 11/7/2028

Pro

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