Politics / Elections

WI-07 Democratic nominee? — Will Ginger Murray be the Democratic nominee for WI-07?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 449 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

12.8%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range3.8pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

9¢

bid 6¢ · ask 12¢

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

13¢

bid 11¢ · ask 15¢

24h vol $319

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'WI-07 Democratic Primary Winner' ↔ 'WI-07 Democratic nominee?' (score 0.50, outcome match 1.00).

Kalshi ticker

KXWIPRIMARY-07D26-GMUR

Resolves 11/3/2027

Polymarket condition

0x98f9f3460014d6c2…

Resolves 8/11/2026

Pro

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