Politics / Elections

Greater Manchester mayoral election winner? — Will Green win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 365 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

0.8%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

2¢

bid 1¢ · ask 2¢

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Best price

Polymarket

0¢

bid — · ask 0¢

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Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Greater Manchester Mayoral Election Winner' ↔ 'Greater Manchester mayoral election winner?' (score 0.83, outcome match 0.75).

Kalshi ticker

KXMANCHESTERMAYOR-26JUL30-GRE

Resolves 7/30/2027

Polymarket condition

0xa77410b122aef91e…

Resolves 7/30/2026

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