Sports
FIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Winner — Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the World Chess Championship?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 730 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
29.0%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range4.5pp dislocation
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: '2026 World Chess Championship: Winner' ↔ 'FIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Winner' (score 0.62, outcome match 1.00).
Kalshi ticker
KXCHESSWORLDCHAMPION-CHESS26-GDOM
Resolves 12/30/2028
Polymarket condition
0xb8b5ba728577c752…
Resolves 1/1/2027
Pro
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