Politics / Elections

Michigan Democratic Senate primary margin of victory? — Will the margin of victory for Haley Stevens in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be above 15%? — Haley Stevens, ≥15%

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

1.5%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

2¢

bid 1¢ · ask 2¢

24h vol $2,292

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

2¢

bid 1¢ · ask 3¢

24h vol $10

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory' ↔ 'Michigan Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?' (score 0.75, outcome match 0.50).

Kalshi ticker

KXPRIMARYMOV-KXSENATEMID26-HSTE-P57

Resolves 8/4/2027

Polymarket condition

0x9ea94966b826684a…

Resolves 8/4/2026

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