Other

What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year? — Will Hanna be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

4.4%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range17.5pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

4¢

bid 2¢ · ask 5¢

24h vol $748

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

21¢

bid 2¢ · ask 40¢

24h vol $40

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?' ↔ 'What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year?' (score 0.71, outcome match 0.56).

Kalshi ticker

KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01ATL-HAN

Resolves 12/1/2026

Polymarket condition

0xd73c071b36cda927…

Resolves 12/1/2026

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