Macro

July 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core — Will Headline be Exactly 0.2% AND Core be Exactly 0.2% for Jul 2026? — Headline: Exactly 0.2%, Core: Exactly 0.2%

26.5%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range20.5pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

6¢

bid 0¢ · ask 12¢

Polymarket

27¢

bid 24¢ · ask 29¢

24h vol $89

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Core PCE MoM - July 2026' ↔ 'July 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core' (score 0.50, outcome match 0.40, llm=uncertain).

Kalshi ticker

KXCPICOMBO-26JULB-0202

Resolves 8/12/2026

Polymarket condition

0xcb1d0f920ebdd0c0…

Resolves 8/26/2026

Pro

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