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How many House seats will Democrats win in New York? — Will Democrats win fewer than 16 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in New York? — Below 16
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
0.6%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
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Mapping notes
Event pair: 'How many House seats will the Democrats win in New York?' ↔ 'How many House seats will Democrats win in New York?' (score 0.75, outcome match 0.50, llm=uncertain).
Kalshi ticker
KXHOUSEWINSTATE-NYD-B16
Resolves 11/3/2027
Polymarket condition
0xb06a70e578b05ea4…
Resolves 11/4/2026
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