Politics / 2028

2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Who will win the next presidential election? — J.B. Pritzker

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

1.5%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

2¢

bid 1¢ · ask 2¢

24h vol $75,485

Trade on Kalshi →

Best price

Polymarket

1¢

bid 1¢ · ask 1¢

24h vol $1,798

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Presidential Election Winner 2028' ↔ '2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?' (score 1.00, outcome match 0.50).

Kalshi ticker

KXPRESPERSON-28-JPRI

Resolves 11/7/2029

Polymarket condition

0xefe6300fd8a053cc…

Resolves 11/7/2028

Pro

Order book depth, real-time dislocation alerts, correlated markets, and cross-venue portfolio margin — coming soon.