Politics / 2028
2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Who will win the next presidential election? — J.D. Vance
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 364 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
19.9%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
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Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history
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Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Presidential Election Winner 2028' ↔ '2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?' (score 1.00, outcome match 0.50, llm=uncertain).
Kalshi ticker
KXPRESPERSON-28-JVAN
Resolves 11/7/2029
Polymarket condition
0x7ad403c3508f8e39…
Resolves 11/8/2028
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