Politics / 2028

2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? — Who will win the next presidential election? — J.D. Vance

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 366 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

19.7%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range2.5pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

18¢

bid 17¢ · ask 18¢

24h vol $6,526

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

20¢

bid 20¢ · ask 20¢

24h vol $62,121

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Presidential Election Winner 2028' ↔ '2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?' (score 1.00, outcome match 0.50).

Kalshi ticker

KXPRESPERSON-28-JVAN

Resolves 11/7/2029

Polymarket condition

0x7ad403c3508f8e39…

Resolves 11/7/2028

Pro

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