Politics / Elections

Florida Republican Governor primary: James Fishback vote percent — Will James Fishback receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida Republican Governor primary?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 365 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

5.8%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range3.8pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

6¢

bid 6¢ · ask 6¢

24h vol $703

Trade on Kalshi →

Best price

Polymarket

2¢

bid 1¢ · ask 3¢

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'James Fishback vote share in 2026 Florida Republican Governor Primary?' ↔ 'Florida Republican Governor primary: James Fishback vote percent' (score 0.67, outcome match 0.40).

Kalshi ticker

KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVFLNOMR26JFIS-65

Resolves 8/18/2027

Polymarket condition

0x3576911937ff15d8…

Resolves 8/18/2026

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