Entertainment

Emmy winner: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie — Will Jason Bateman win Movie/Limited Actor at the Emmy Awards?

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 365 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

4.5%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range4.0pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

9¢

bid 1¢ · ask 16¢

Trade on Kalshi →

Best price

Polymarket

5¢

bid 2¢ · ask 7¢

24h vol $307

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie' ↔ 'Emmy winner: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie' (score 0.54, outcome match 0.50).

Kalshi ticker

KXEMMYLIMITEDACTO-26SEP14-JAS

Resolves 9/14/2027

Polymarket condition

0xeca38827cca77cb6…

Resolves 9/14/2026

Pro

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