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Argentina presidential election winner? — Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? — Javier Milei

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 373 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

49.5%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range10.0pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

7-day price history Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

60¢

bid 57¢ · ask 62¢

Trade on Kalshi →

Best price

Polymarket

50¢

bid 49¢ · ask 50¢

24h vol $366

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Argentina Presidential Election Winner' ↔ 'Argentina presidential election winner?' (score 0.80, outcome match 0.60).

Kalshi ticker

KXARGENTINAPRES-27-JMIL

Resolves 10/30/2028

Polymarket condition

0x338f6f3e5ff30f18…

Resolves 10/24/2027

Pro

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