Sports
NBA — Pro Basketball MVP Winner — Will Jayson Tatum win MVP?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 365 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
5.5%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range2.8pp dislocation
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Kalshi Polymarket
7-day price history
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Mapping notes
Event pair: 'NBA: 2026-27 MVP' ↔ 'Pro Basketball MVP Winner' (score 0.67, outcome match 1.00, llm=same).
Kalshi ticker
KXNBAMVP-27-JTATUM0
Resolves 6/30/2028
Polymarket condition
0xa67db5b079e0f995…
Resolves 7/1/2027
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