Geopolitics
Who will win the 2027 French presidential election? — Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election?
5.7%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range9.8pp dislocation
K
P
0%50%100%
Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: '2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?' ↔ 'Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?' (score 0.67, outcome match 1.00).
Kalshi ticker
KXFRENCHPRES-27-JCAS
Resolves 5/30/2028
Polymarket condition
0xafa0761e7287a31a…
Resolves 4/17/2027
Pro
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