Geopolitics
Next French presidential election winner? — Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 397 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
12.2%volume-weighted implied probability
YES price range
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Kalshi Polymarket
Mapping notes
Event pair: 'Next French Presidential Election' ↔ 'Next French presidential election winner?' (score 0.60, outcome match 1.00).
Kalshi ticker
KXFRENCHPRES-27-JMEL
Resolves 5/30/2028
Polymarket condition
0x174ea87d011bfd0b…
Resolves 4/30/2027
Pro
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