Politics / Elections

Tallahassee Mayoral Election — Who will win the 2026 Tallahassee, Florida mayoral election? — Jeremy Matlow

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 365 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

31.5%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range4.5pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Best price

Kalshi

28¢

bid 26¢ · ask 30¢

24h vol $220

Trade on Kalshi →

Polymarket

33¢

bid 32¢ · ask 33¢

24h vol $773

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'Tallahassee Mayoral Election Winner' ↔ 'Tallahassee Mayoral Election' (score 0.60, outcome match 0.60).

Kalshi ticker

KXTALLAHASSEEMAYOR-26-JMAT

Resolves 8/18/2027

Polymarket condition

0xfaaf021c1903173c…

Resolves 8/18/2026

Pro

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