Politics / Elections

CA-34 House winner? — Who will win the 2026 CA-34 House election? — Jimmy Gomez

Heads up: Kalshi and Polymarket resolve this market 365 days apart — the price difference may reflect different time horizons rather than a genuine arbitrage opportunity.

47.7%volume-weighted implied probability

YES price range12.0pp dislocation

0%50%100%

Kalshi Polymarket

Kalshi

53¢

bid 52¢ · ask 54¢

24h vol $4,650

Trade on Kalshi →

Best price

Polymarket

41¢

bid 38¢ · ask 44¢

24h vol $3,661

Trade on Polymarket →

Mapping notes

Event pair: 'CA-34 House Election Winner (Individual)' ↔ 'CA-34 House winner?' (score 0.57, outcome match 0.60).

Kalshi ticker

KXCAELECTION-2634-JGOM

Resolves 11/3/2027

Polymarket condition

0x80a9f1b23c326e82…

Resolves 11/3/2026

Pro

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